For the statisticians and other folks who prefer graphs to see what's going on a specific market, here's a snapshot of what it looks like in San Ramon, comparing the market the past two years, starting in October 2007 - October 2009.
People will see different things and interpret this information in different ways --- I guess it depends on what you want to see or what you hope will happen. Some market observers have said the bottom was four months ago. Some say the worst is yet to come (when?).
in the meantime, here's what the data is SHOWING us.
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY I like starting with the months supply of inventory. When there are more buyers than there are sellers, it means that it's a seller's market. The higher the months inventory, the more it becomes a seller's market. Traditonally, if the the months inventory is more than six months, it's a buyer's market, and vice versa. This shows quite drop, and seems to be on a continuous downtrend.
UNDER CONTRACT Homes under contract peaked in September 2009 (height of selling season?) and dropped in October.
MEDIAN PRICE it appears the median price is recovering because the median price is only 8% below where it was two years ago. The lowest median prices were posted in January 2009, and made a comeback the next month!
SUPPLY AND DEMAND Here'sgood way to correlate number of properties sold (demand) with number of properties for sale (supply). Supply is on the downward trend, or 38% less than where it was this time in 2007. While demand increased by 55%.
So...what are these graphs telling you?
Pacita: I am so impressed with your graphs. It must take you hours to do them. I need a graph class and a streamline way to get the graphs into my blogs.
Kathleen....
Clarus Market Metrics provides a service to our local MLS where we can pull up certain data...then after making our selection, we double click to get our reports, and here they are!
Clarus offers a lot more services for a fee, but I'm satisfied with what we get for free. Perhaps your local MLS is doing the same thing for you? If not, you may want to recommend it. It's a really good tool.