For the statisticians and other folks who prefer graphs to see what's going on a specific market, here's a snapshot of what it looks like in San Ramon, comparing the market the past two years, starting in October 2007 - October 2009.
People will see different things and interpret this information in different ways --- I guess it depends on what you want to see or what you hope will happen. Some market observers have said the bottom was four months ago. Some say the worst is yet to come (when?).
in the meantime, here's what the data is SHOWING us.
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY I like starting with the months supply of inventory. When there are more buyers than there are sellers, it means that it's a seller's market. The higher the months inventory, the more it becomes a seller's market. Traditonally, if the the months inventory is more than six months, it's a buyer's market, and vice versa. This shows quite drop, and seems to be on a continuous downtrend.
UNDER CONTRACT Homes under contract peaked in April 2009 (height of selling season?) and seems to be on the rise again in October.
MEDIAN PRICE After a significant drop in number of units sold as well as media price, it appears the median price is showing a slight uptick although the median price is still 16% below where it was two years ago,
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SUPPLY AND DEMAND Here'sgood way to correlate number of properties sold (demand) with number of properties for sale (supply). Supply is on the downward trend, or 52% less than where it was this time in 2007. While demand increased by 57%.
So...what are these graphs telling you?
Pacita:
They tell me the first time home buyer tax credit is working down there ....as it is here.
Jim
the first time home buyer tax credit is a good boost for home buyers --- not only are the homes priced lower, they get a little bit of money they can apply towards closing costs. Unfortunately, some of these markets are really hot, and they are outbid by all cash buyers!
Pacita: I did my first graphs yesterday. Took me far longer than I could ever have imagined. Results are not what I wanted ... yet it was a good first start. Your graphs are an inspiration to me. Thank you.
Kathleen
I can't take too much credit for this. Clarus Market Metrics provides us with a limited version of this service, but it's good enough to show where the market is today, and possibly where it's headed. Maybe your MLS has the same service?